全文获取类型
收费全文 | 17106篇 |
免费 | 2555篇 |
国内免费 | 2697篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 2939篇 |
大气科学 | 2934篇 |
地球物理 | 2768篇 |
地质学 | 5578篇 |
海洋学 | 1180篇 |
天文学 | 386篇 |
综合类 | 1547篇 |
自然地理 | 5026篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 33篇 |
2023年 | 159篇 |
2022年 | 461篇 |
2021年 | 623篇 |
2020年 | 659篇 |
2019年 | 680篇 |
2018年 | 554篇 |
2017年 | 781篇 |
2016年 | 814篇 |
2015年 | 854篇 |
2014年 | 1008篇 |
2013年 | 1373篇 |
2012年 | 1077篇 |
2011年 | 1139篇 |
2010年 | 920篇 |
2009年 | 988篇 |
2008年 | 1089篇 |
2007年 | 1139篇 |
2006年 | 1132篇 |
2005年 | 957篇 |
2004年 | 924篇 |
2003年 | 810篇 |
2002年 | 707篇 |
2001年 | 584篇 |
2000年 | 563篇 |
1999年 | 442篇 |
1998年 | 383篇 |
1997年 | 331篇 |
1996年 | 230篇 |
1995年 | 201篇 |
1994年 | 186篇 |
1993年 | 135篇 |
1992年 | 99篇 |
1991年 | 65篇 |
1990年 | 70篇 |
1989年 | 33篇 |
1988年 | 39篇 |
1987年 | 22篇 |
1986年 | 22篇 |
1985年 | 23篇 |
1984年 | 14篇 |
1983年 | 8篇 |
1982年 | 3篇 |
1981年 | 7篇 |
1980年 | 8篇 |
1979年 | 1篇 |
1978年 | 2篇 |
1976年 | 1篇 |
1974年 | 1篇 |
1954年 | 4篇 |
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
101.
102.
Dynamic land use change simulation using cellular automata with spatially nonstationary transition rules 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The dynamic relationships between land use change and its driving forces vary spatially and can be identified by geographically weighted regression (GWR). We present a novel cellular automata (GWR-CA) model that incorporates GWR-derived spatially varying relationships to simulate land use change. Our GWR-CA model is characterized by spatially nonstationary transition rules that fully address local interactions in land use change. More importantly, each driving factor in our GWR model contains effects that both promote and resist land use change. We applied GWR-CA to simulate rapid land use change in Suzhou City on the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015. The GWR coefficients were visualized to highlight their spatial patterns and local variation, which are closely associated with their effects on land use change. The transition rules indicate low land conversion potential in the city’s center and outer suburbs, but higher land conversion potential in the inner near suburbs along the belt expressway. Residual statistics show that GWR fits the input data better than logistic regression (LR). Compared with an LR-based CA model, GWR-CA improves overall accuracy by 4.1% and captures 5.5% more urban growth, suggesting that GWR-CA may be superior in modeling land use change. Our results demonstrate that the GWR-CA model is effective in capturing spatially varying land transition rules to produce more realistic results, and is suitable for simulating land use change and urban expansion in rapidly urbanizing regions. 相似文献
103.
Rapid flood mapping is critical for local authorities and emergency responders to identify areas in need of immediate attention. However, traditional data collection practices such as remote sensing and field surveying often fail to offer timely information during or right after a flooding event. Social media such as Twitter have emerged as a new data source for disaster management and flood mapping. Using the 2015 South Carolina floods as the study case, this paper introduces a novel approach to mapping the flood in near real time by leveraging Twitter data in geospatial processes. Specifically, in this study, we first analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of flood-related tweets using quantitative methods to better understand how Twitter activity is related to flood phenomena. Then, a kernel-based flood mapping model was developed to map the flooding possibility for the study area based on the water height points derived from tweets and stream gauges. The identified patterns of Twitter activity were used to assign the weights of flood model parameters. The feasibility and accuracy of the model was evaluated by comparing the model output with official inundation maps. Results show that the proposed approach could provide a consistent and comparable estimation of the flood situation in near real time, which is essential for improving the situational awareness during a flooding event to support decision-making. 相似文献
104.
105.
Huan WU Xiaomeng LI Guy J.-P.SCHUMANN Lorenzo ALFIERI Yun CHEN Hui XU Zhifang WU Hong LU Yamin HU Qiang ZHU Zhijun HUANG Weitian CHEN Ying HU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(1):1-7
The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China,particularly in the Yangtze River basin.Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China.Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China,India and the United States.Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain.Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies. 相似文献
106.
大气CO2浓度增加,大气辐射平衡调整,将影响到大气的辐射加热,对季风环流的产生影响.CMIP6结果显示,大气CO2浓度增加,可减弱季风区主雨季对流层高,低层的辐射加热,加强对流层中层的辐射加热.各季风区加热响应的峰值层次不同:亚洲季风区平均层次最高(500-775 hPa),北非,南美,澳洲季风区次之(550-600 hPa),北美(600hPa)和南非季风区(600-775 hPa)较低.各季风区水云的垂直分布及其长波辐射效应的变化是形成峰值层次差异的主因. 相似文献
107.
利用1961—2018年中国西南地区312站降水观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及海表温度资料,采用夏季SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)指数作为干旱指数,研究了西南地区夏季干旱变化特征及其与环流异常的联系。结果表明:西南地区夏季总体呈现变干趋势,尤其在云南、四川东南部干旱化趋势显著。当西南地区夏季显著干旱时,该地区对流层低层辐散、上层辐合,且向该地区的水汽输送偏少。造成西南地区干旱维持的原因可归结为大气波动活动异常和海温异常强迫。前者通过西风带扰动向下游的能量频散,为西南地区低层辐散、上层辐合的环流异常的形成和维持提供了必要的扰动能量积聚;后者通过热带西北太平洋异常热源对大气的强迫,使得该地区对流层低层(上层)形成异常辐合(辐散),在西南地区和热带西北太平洋形成了斜向垂直环流,使西南地区受下沉气流控制,从而形成了利于降水显著偏少和干旱发生并维持的条件。 相似文献
108.
2021年10月3—6日,我国北方地区经历了历史罕见的持续性极端强降水过程,暴雨中心稳定维持在陕西中部、山西、京津冀、辽宁等地南部和山东北部,给上述地区造成了巨大的经济损失和严重的人员伤亡。基于台站观测降水、NCEP/NCAR和ERA5再分析资料诊断了本次降水过程的极端性。结果表明,本次暴雨过程无论是降水强度、持续时长还是经向水汽输送均表现出典型北方夏季暴雨和大气环流配置特征。上述五省二市区域平均的过程累计雨量强度远远超过秋季其他暴雨个例,即使在夏季也位列第二。本次过程的极端性与强降水中心稳定在上述地区密切相关。上述五省二市区域平均降水连续4日均超过15 mm,这在秋季历史上从未出现过。除过程的极端性强外,9月山西等地降水异常偏多对10月初秋涝也起到了叠加作用。本次秋涝对应的大气环流呈现出典型的北方夏季主雨季环流型,表现为西太平洋副热带高压(副高)偏西偏北,副高西侧的经向水汽输送异常强盛,同时10月4—6日北方地区发生一次强冷空气过程,冷暖气流交汇在上述地区。水汽收支计算表明,本次过程的经向水汽输送强度为秋季历史之最,甚至超过了盛夏时期北方大部分暴雨过程水汽输送强度。上述分析结果表明,即使在仲秋时节亦可产生有利于北方极端持续暴雨的环流形势和水汽输送,并导致秋涝发生。 相似文献
109.
110.
近年来,极端天气气候事件频繁发生,且常常表现为多种事件交织形成的复合型极端事件。为了更好地认识复合型极端事件,IPCC AR6基于现有的新证据评估了复合型极端事件的最新研究成果,并取得一些新认识:扩展了有关复合型极端事件的定义,重点围绕高温干旱复合型极端事件、复合洪水和野火,评估了复合型极端事件的变化特征,探讨了复合型极端事件多因子之间的依赖性,对人类活动的影响进行了归因分析并给出了未来可能的变化。这些评估结果丰富了对复合型极端事件的基本认识。但根据现有的评估可以发现,目前在复合型极端事件发生发展机理认识方面还存在不足;同时,未来仍需进一步完善跨学科跨部门跨区域研究,加强对复合型极端事件形成机理、预估及其对生态系统,经济社会影响风险的评估,提高对区域气候变化的适应能力。 相似文献